Difference between revisions of "Are we sure to know everything?"

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Per Alstergren, Jean-Paul Goulet, Frank Lobbezoo, Ambra Michelotti, Richard Ohrbach, Chris Peck, Eric Schiffman
Per Alstergren, Jean-Paul Goulet, Frank Lobbezoo, Ambra Michelotti, Richard Ohrbach, Chris Peck, Eric Schiffman


International RDC/TMD Consortium Network and IADR</ref>**  which essentially reach the following conclusion by R. Ohrbach and  S.F. Dworkin.<ref name=":2">R. Ohrbach and  S.F. Dworkin. The Evolution of TMD Diagnosis. Past, Present, Future Monitoring Editor: Ronald Dubner. J Dent Res. 2016 Sep; 95(10): 1093–1101.  Published online 2016 Jun 16. doi: 10.1177/0022034516653922 PMCID: PMC5004241, PMID: 27313164
International RDC/TMD Consortium Network and IADR</ref> which essentially reach the following conclusion by R. Ohrbach and  S.F. Dworkin.<ref name=":2">R. Ohrbach and  S.F. Dworkin. The Evolution of TMD Diagnosis. Past, Present, Future Monitoring Editor: Ronald Dubner. J Dent Res. 2016 Sep; 95(10): 1093–1101.  Published online 2016 Jun 16. doi: 10.1177/0022034516653922 PMCID: PMC5004241, PMID: 27313164
</ref>   
</ref>   


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The prevalence of temporomandibular disorder (TMDs) symptoms varies significantly between populations.  
The prevalence of temporomandibular disorder (TMDs) symptoms varies significantly between populations.  


A recent systematic review indicated that in the general population the prevalence of having at least one clinical sign of TMD varies between 5 and 60%.<ref>Ryan J, Akhter R, Hassan N, Hilton G, Wickham J, Ibaragi S. Epidemiology of temporomandibular disorder in the general population : a systematic review. Adv Dent Oral Health. 2019;10:1–13. doi: 10.19080/ADOH.2019.10.555787.</ref> However, pain in the temporomandibular region is a common clinical sign, occurring in approximately 10% of the adult population.<ref>Al-Jundi MA, John MT, Setz JM, Szentpétery A, Kuss O. Meta-analysis of treatment need for temporomandibular disorders in adult nonpatients. J Orofac Pain. 2008;22:97–107.</ref> Primary headaches (migraine and tension-type headache [TTH]), however, affect more than 2.5 billion individuals worldwide. A recent global study ranked headaches as the second leading cause of years lost to disability, after low back pain.<ref>GBD Diseases and injuries collaborators (2020) global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. Lancet. 2019;396:1204–1222</ref> Globally, the number of individuals suffering from migraine and TTH in 2017 was estimated to be 1.3 and 2.3 billion with a prevalence of 15% and 16%, respectively.<ref>James SL, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, et al. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet. 2018;392(10159):1789–1858. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32279-7.</ref>
A recent systematic review indicated that in the general population the prevalence of having at least one clinical sign of TMD varies between 5 and 60%.<ref>Ryan J, Akhter R, Hassan N, Hilton G, Wickham J, Ibaragi S. Epidemiology of temporomandibular disorder in the general population : a systematic review. Adv Dent Oral Health. 2019;10:1–13. doi: 10.19080/ADOH.2019.10.555787.</ref> However, pain in the temporomandibular region is a common clinical sign, occurring in approximately 10% of the adult population.<ref>Al-Jundi MA, John MT, Setz JM, Szentpétery A, Kuss O. Meta-analysis of treatment need for temporomandibular disorders in adult nonpatients. J Orofac Pain. 2008;22:97–107.</ref> Primary headaches (migraine and tension-type headache [TTH]), however, affect more than 2.5 billion individuals worldwide. A recent global study ranked headaches as the second leading cause of years lost to disability, after low back pain.<ref>[https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/33069326/ GBD Diseases and injuries collaborators (2020) global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019.] Lancet. 2019;396:1204–1222</ref> Globally, the number of individuals suffering from migraine and TTH in 2017 was estimated to be 1.3 and 2.3 billion with a prevalence of 15% and 16%, respectively.<ref>James SL, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, et al. [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/30496104/ Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017]. Lancet. 2018;392(10159):1789–1858. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32279-7.</ref>


These data already indicate a certain uncertainty in the numbers, an uncertainty which, as we will see later, becomes dramatically conditioning in Bayesian predictability models.
These data already indicate a certain uncertainty in the numbers, an uncertainty which, as we will see later, becomes dramatically conditioning in Bayesian predictability models.


Furthermore, most of the previous studies on the association of TMD-related pain and headache have been based on 'Frequencyist' statistics, models which, compared to the Bayesian approach, suffer from some limitations, especially the dependence on large samples so that effect sizes are precisely determined.<ref name=":0">Buchinsky FJ, Chadha NK. To P or not to P: backing Bayesian statistics. Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg. 2017;157(6):915–918. doi: 10.1177/0194599817739260.</ref><blockquote>According to Javed Ashraf et al.<ref name=":1">Javed Ashraf, Matti Närhi, Anna Liisa Suominen, Tuomas Saxlin. Association of temporomandibular disorder-related pain with severe headaches-a Bayesian view. Clin Oral Investing. 2022 Jan;26(1):729-738. doi: 10.1007/s00784-021-04051-y. Epub 2021 Jul 5.</ref> contrary to the 'Frequencyist' methodology, Bayesian statistics does not provide a (fixed) result value but rather an interval containing the regression coefficient.<ref>Depaoli S, van de Schoot R. Bayesian analyses: where to start and what to report. Eur Heal Psychol. 2014;16:75–84.</ref> These intervals, called confidence intervals (CI), assign a probability to the best estimate and to all possible values of the parameter estimates.<ref name=":0" /></blockquote>In the study by Javed Ashraf et al.<ref name=":1" /> the authors using Bayesian methodology, attempted to verify the existence of the correlation between TMD-related pain with severe headaches (migraine and TTH) over an 11-year follow-up period. The Health 2000 survey, conducted in 2000 and 2001, included 9922 invited participants aged 18 years and older living in mainland Finland.<ref>Aromaa A, Koskinen S (2004) Health and functional capacity in Finland. Baseline results of the Health 2000 Health Examination Survey. Publications of the National Public Health Institute B12/2004. Helsinki</ref> The prospective association of mTMD at baseline with the presence of TTH at follow-up found in the present study is in line with previous epidemiological, clinical and physiological evidence. Previous epidemiological studies have shown an association between TMD-related pain and TTH.<ref>Ciancaglini R, Radaelli G. The relationship between headache and symptoms of temporomandibular disorder in the general population. J Dent. 2001;29:93–98. doi: 10.1016/S0300-5712(00)00042-7</ref> Clinically, TMD-related pain and TTH share a combination of distinct signs and symptoms in the head and facial region, particularly evident regarding mTMD and TTH. These common clinical features include tenderness on palpation of the masticatory muscles in the case of mTMD and of the pericranial muscles in the case of TTH during the active phases of both conditions.<ref>Bendtsen L, Ashina S, Moore A, Steiner TJ. Muscles and their role in episodic tension-type headache: implications for treatment. Eur J Pain. 2016;20:166–175. doi: 10.1002/ejp.748.</ref> Other clinical intersections between mTMD and TTH include age of subjects regarding peak prevalence,<ref>Costa Y-M, Porporatti A-L, Calderon P-S, Conti P-C-R, Bonjardim L-R. Can palpation-induced muscle pain pattern contribute to the differential diagnosis among temporomandibular disorders, primary headaches phenotypes and possible bruxism? Med oral, Patol oral y cirugía bucal. 2016;21:e59–65. doi: 10.4317/medoral.20826.</ref> pain intensity, pharmacotherapy,<ref>Neblett R, Cohen H, Choi Y, Hartzell MM, Williams M, Mayer TG, Gatchel RJ. The central sensitization inventory (CSI): establishing clinically significant values for identifying central sensitivity syndromes in an outpatient chronic pain sample. J Pain. 2013;14:438–445. doi: 10.1016/j.jpain.2012.11.012.</ref> and even non-pharmacological treatment.<ref>Fernández-De-Las-Peñas C, Cuadrado ML. Physical therapy for headaches. Cephalalgia. 2016;36:1134–1142. doi: 10.1177/0333102415596445.</ref> Despite some clinical similarities and overlap, both mTMD and TTH are distinct disease entities and Javed Ashraf<ref name=":1" /> elegantly concludes:  
Furthermore, most of the previous studies on the association of TMD-related pain and headache have been based on 'Frequencyist' statistics, models which, compared to the Bayesian approach, suffer from some limitations, especially the dependence on large samples so that effect sizes are precisely determined.<ref name=":0">Buchinsky FJ, Chadha NK. To P or not to P: backing Bayesian statistics. Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg. 2017;157(6):915–918. doi: 10.1177/0194599817739260.</ref><blockquote>According to Javed Ashraf et al.<ref name=":1">Javed Ashraf, Matti Närhi, Anna Liisa Suominen, Tuomas Saxlin. [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/34224000/ Association of temporomandibular disorder-related pain with severe headaches-a Bayesian view.] Clin Oral Investing. 2022 Jan;26(1):729-738. doi: 10.1007/s00784-021-04051-y. Epub 2021 Jul 5.</ref> contrary to the 'Frequencyist' methodology, Bayesian statistics does not provide a (fixed) result value but rather an interval containing the regression coefficient.<ref>Depaoli S, van de Schoot R. Bayesian analyses: where to start and what to report. Eur Heal Psychol. 2014;16:75–84.</ref> These intervals, called confidence intervals (CI), assign a probability to the best estimate and to all possible values of the parameter estimates.<ref name=":0" /></blockquote>In the study by Javed Ashraf et al.<ref name=":1" /> the authors using Bayesian methodology, attempted to verify the existence of the correlation between TMD-related pain with severe headaches (migraine and TTH) over an 11-year follow-up period. The Health 2000 survey, conducted in 2000 and 2001, included 9922 invited participants aged 18 years and older living in mainland Finland.<ref>Aromaa A, Koskinen S (2004) Health and functional capacity in Finland. Baseline results of the Health 2000 Health Examination Survey. Publications of the National Public Health Institute B12/2004. Helsinki</ref> The prospective association of mTMD at baseline with the presence of TTH at follow-up found in the present study is in line with previous epidemiological, clinical and physiological evidence. Previous epidemiological studies have shown an association between TMD-related pain and TTH.<ref>Ciancaglini R, Radaelli G. The relationship between headache and symptoms of temporomandibular disorder in the general population. J Dent. 2001;29:93–98. doi: 10.1016/S0300-5712(00)00042-7</ref> Clinically, TMD-related pain and TTH share a combination of distinct signs and symptoms in the head and facial region, particularly evident regarding mTMD and TTH. These common clinical features include tenderness on palpation of the masticatory muscles in the case of mTMD and of the pericranial muscles in the case of TTH during the active phases of both conditions.<ref>Bendtsen L, Ashina S, Moore A, Steiner TJ. Muscles and their role in episodic tension-type headache: implications for treatment. Eur J Pain. 2016;20:166–175. doi: 10.1002/ejp.748.</ref> Other clinical intersections between mTMD and TTH include age of subjects regarding peak prevalence,<ref>Costa Y-M, Porporatti A-L, Calderon P-S, Conti P-C-R, Bonjardim L-R. [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/26615507/ Can palpation-induced muscle pain pattern contribute to the differential diagnosis among temporomandibular disorders, primary headaches phenotypes and possible bruxism?] Med oral, Patol oral y cirugía bucal. 2016;21:e59–65. doi: 10.4317/medoral.20826.</ref> pain intensity, pharmacotherapy,<ref>Neblett R, Cohen H, Choi Y, Hartzell MM, Williams M, Mayer TG, Gatchel RJ. [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23490634/ The central sensitization inventory (CSI): establishing clinically significant values for identifying central sensitivity syndromes in an outpatient chronic pain sample.] J Pain. 2013;14:438–445. doi: 10.1016/j.jpain.2012.11.012.</ref> and even non-pharmacological treatment.<ref>Fernández-De-Las-Peñas C, Cuadrado ML. Physical therapy for headaches. Cephalalgia. 2016;36:1134–1142. doi: 10.1177/0333102415596445.</ref> Despite some clinical similarities and overlap, both mTMD and TTH are distinct disease entities and Javed Ashraf<ref name=":1" /> elegantly concludes:  


{{q2|Although the mix of similarities may require close interdisciplinary cooperation between specialties (dentistry vs neurology), vigilance should also be exercised regarding the distinction between these two pathological entities during their treatment.|'Interdisciplinarity' means 'Context'}}
{{q2|Although the mix of similarities may require close interdisciplinary cooperation between specialties (dentistry vs neurology), vigilance should also be exercised regarding the distinction between these two pathological entities during their treatment.|'Interdisciplinarity' means 'Context'}}
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{{q2|So how can the problem be solved?|......with the usual Hamletic doubt: who says that the asymmetry of the trigeminal responses are compatible with a TMD?}}
{{q2|So how can the problem be solved?|......with the usual Hamletic doubt: who says that the asymmetry of the trigeminal responses are compatible with a TMD?}}


In quantum theory, events can be defined as compatible or incompatible. In the case where all events are compatible, quantum probability is identical to classical probability. Deciding when two events should be treated as compatible or incompatible is an important research question. In a very interesting article Jennifer S. Trueblood and Jerome R. Busemeyer<ref>Jennifer S. Trueblood, Jerome R. Busemeyer. A Quantum Probability Account of Order Effects in Inference. Cognitive Science Volume 35, Issue 8 p. 1518-1552. <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1551-6709.2011.01197.x</nowiki>
In quantum theory, events can be defined as compatible or incompatible. In the case where all events are compatible, quantum probability is identical to classical probability. Deciding when two events should be treated as compatible or incompatible is an important research question. In a very interesting article Jennifer S. Trueblood and Jerome R. Busemeyer<ref>Jennifer S. Trueblood, Jerome R. Busemeyer. [https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1551-6709.2011.01197.x A Quantum Probability Account of Order Effects in Inference.] Cognitive Science Volume 35, Issue 8 p. 1518-1552. <nowiki>https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1551-6709.2011.01197.x</nowiki>
</ref> represented the phenomenon of the information order effect by concluding that Cognitive models based on the principles of quantum probability have the potential to explain paradoxical phenomena that occur in science cognitive. Previously, quantum models have been used to account for violations of rational principles of decision making,<ref>Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2009). A quantum probability explanation for violations of “rational” decision theory. ''Proceedings of the Royal Society B'',  276(1165),  2171–2178.</ref> paradoxes of conceptual combination,<ref>Aerts, D. (2009). Quantum structure in cognition. ''Journal of Mathematical Psychology'',  53,  314–348</ref> human judgments<ref>Khrennikov, A. Y. (2004).  Information dynamics in cognitive, psychological, social and anomalous phenomena. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic.</ref> and perception<ref>Atmanspacher, H., Filk, T., & Romer, H. (2004). Quantum zero features of bistable perception. ''Biological Cybernetics'',  90,  33–40.</ref> and that, however, the quantum inference model can fit the task data perfectly medical decision-making by Bergus et al. (1998).<ref>Bergus, G. R., Chapman, G. B., Levy, B. T., Ely, J. W., & Oppliger, R. A. (1998). Clinical diagnosis and order of information. ''Medical Decision Making'',  18,  412–417.</ref>
</ref> represented the phenomenon of the information order effect by concluding that Cognitive models based on the principles of quantum probability have the potential to explain paradoxical phenomena that occur in science cognitive. Previously, quantum models have been used to account for violations of rational principles of decision making,<ref>Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2009). [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/19324743/ A quantum probability explanation for violations of “rational” decision theory]. ''Proceedings of the Royal Society B'',  276(1165),  2171–2178.</ref> paradoxes of conceptual combination,<ref>Aerts, D. (2009). Quantum structure in cognition. ''Journal of Mathematical Psychology'',  53,  314–348</ref> human judgments<ref>Khrennikov, A. Y. (2004).  Information dynamics in cognitive, psychological, social and anomalous phenomena. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic.</ref> and perception<ref>Atmanspacher, H., Filk, T., & Romer, H. (2004). Quantum zero features of bistable perception. ''Biological Cybernetics'',  90,  33–40.</ref> and that, however, the quantum inference model can fit the task data perfectly medical decision-making by Bergus et al. (1998).<ref>Bergus, G. R., Chapman, G. B., Levy, B. T., Ely, J. W., & Oppliger, R. A. (1998). Clinical diagnosis and order of information. ''Medical Decision Making'',  18,  412–417.</ref>


{{q2|Are we still sure we know everything?|...let's see what happens to our last two patients}}
{{q2|Are we still sure we know everything?|...let's see what happens to our last two patients}}


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